Download e-book for iPad: Analyzing Wimbledon: The Power of Statistics by Franc Klaassen

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By Franc Klaassen

ISBN-10: 0199355959

ISBN-13: 9780199355952

The sport of tennis increases many questions which are of curiosity to a statistician. Is it precise that commencing to serve in a suite supplies a bonus? Are new balls a bonus? Is the 7th video game in a suite relatively vital? Are most sensible avid gamers extra sturdy than different gamers? Do genuine champions win the large issues? those and lots of different questions are formulated as "hypotheses" and demonstrated statistically.

Analyzing Wimbledon additionally discusses how the result of a fit might be estimated (even whereas the fit is in progress), which issues are vital and which aren't, how one can pick out an optimum carrier approach, and even if "winning temper" really exists in tennis. aimed toward readers with a few wisdom of arithmetic and statistics, the e-book makes use of tennis (Wimbledon particularly) as a car to demonstrate the ability and wonder of statistical reasoning.

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Sample text

7%. Big swings occurred at the end of the fourth set. Nadal led 5-2 in the tiebreak, then double-faulted to 5-3. At 7-6 and again at 8-7, Nadal had matchpoints (the second time on his own service). Eventually Federer won the tiebreak 10-8. 5% (because of the magnification effect) but larger than 50%. In the final set, Federer was 4-3 ahead and had breakpoint on Nadal’s service. 9%, the highest of the match. But Nadal held serve. 9%. Again Nadal held service. At 5-5 Federer was two breakpoints down.

We thus transform the initial problem of finding pi and pj into two (easier) problems: finding mi at the beginning of the match and finding pi + pj . From mi and pi + pj we first derive pi − pj , and then pi and pj themselves. How do we know mi at the beginning of a match and how do we determine pi + pj ? There are several ways to estimate mi at the beginning of a match. One could use the rankings of the two players. This works reasonably well in practice but it has the disadvantage that the court surface (grass, clay) is not taken into account and also that recent information such as a minor injury is ignored.

More specifically, we know that from pi and pj , or equivalently from pi − pj and pi + pj , Richard calculates mi at the beginning of a match. So, knowing mi and pi + pj , we can calculate pi − pj by ‘inverting’ Richard. 4 this inversion implies going from a value of mi on the vertical axis via the S-shaped curve implied by pi + pj to a unique value of pi − pj on the horizontal axis. The inversion automatically Forecasting 35 circumvents the problem that small deviations in pi − pj have a major impact on mi , because we start from mi , not from pi − pj .

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Analyzing Wimbledon: The Power of Statistics by Franc Klaassen


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