By Asian Development Bank
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Additional resources for Asian Development Outlook 2011: South-South Economic Links
Another channel of impact is commodity market prices. Japan is a globally significant net importer of commodities. 3 million barrels of oil a day. Unsurprisingly, some commodity indexes initially fell heavily after news of the earthquake, though the impact on most commodity prices will wear off quickly. Where there may be some lingering effects is in energy markets. The unfolding nuclear crisis may raise worldwide concerns about the safety of nuclear energy, and may benefit energy exporters such as Kazakhstan and Timor-Leste if those concerns lead to a medium-term shift in the global energy mix.
2 Japan’s outward FDI stock, end-2009 0 Click here for figure data In trade, since Japan plays an important role in global supply chains and regional production networks, short-run regional and global production may be disrupted. As production of semiconductors, auto parts, and optical lens is suspended in the quake-hit Tohoku region, concern about a shortage of supply is growing within and outside Asia. Such disruptions are especially significant for East and Southeast Asia, which are tightly integrated with Japan in regional production networks.
Nuclear power supplies a third of Japan’s electricity and power companies have already put into place a program of rolling blackouts. Possible erosion of consumer and business confidence is an intangible factor. An improvement of consumer confidence after December 2008 had stalled from May 2010, reflecting the mixed outlook and overall uncertainty (Box figure). One huge short-term influence on confidence is how well the authorities contain the radiation leakage from Fukushima nuclear plant. Consumer confidence, Japan Jan 2005 = 100 110 90 70 50 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb 2006 07 08 09 10 11 Source: Economic and Social Research Institute.
Asian Development Outlook 2011: South-South Economic Links by Asian Development Bank